The Championship Series is upon us and only four teams remain from the 30 who began the MLB season back in March. October winnowed the field to 12 playoff teams, the Wild Card round cut out four more, and now, the New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians, New York Mets, and Los Angeles Dodgers are the last clubs standing. The Dodgers vs. Mets clash over in the National League Championship Series will probably get the most attention, what with Shohei Ohtani being more electric than anyone in the sport and the Grimace-powered Mets bringing their own shocking story to the fold.
That being said, few will outright ignore the American League Championship Series, where Literally the Yankees are playing for their first pennant since 2009. Remarkably, over half of all other MLB teams have appeared in a World Series since the most famous team last made it. That figure includes the Yankees’ foes in this particular ALCS: not the hated Astros, but instead, the Guardians. Houston has sent New York home in each of their last three ALCS battles (2017, 2019, 2022), raising the velvet rope and preventing Aaron Judge and the Bombers from entering the Fall Classic. The upstart Tigers did the Yanks a favor by dispatching those Astros in the Wild Card Series, which New York got to skip with a first-round bye.
It seemed like Detroit would meet New York for the pennant too, as while the Yankees beat the Royals in a four-game ALDS behind Giancarlo Stanton and the bullpen, the Tigers sought to do the same to the AL Central-winning Guardians (who, like the Yankees, had a bye). Thanks to heroics from Kerry Carpenter against All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase and 20 consecutive scoreless innings from Tigers pitching, they had a 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4 in Detroit. Seven outs from an ALCS berth, the Guardians came back to life on a two-run homer by David Fry, quieting the excited crowd at Comerica Park.
Clase got his revenge against the Tigers by saving the game in the ninth to send the ALDS to a Game 5 in Cleveland. The odds still favored Detroit since they got to deploy Tarik Skubal in a do-or-die start. The likely AL Cy Young Award winner hadn’t allowed a run in nearly a month. It went well for half the game, until Skubal plunked Cleveland superstar José Ramírez with the bases loaded to tie it up and then coughed up a grand slam to Trade Deadline acquisition Lane Thomas. It was smooth sailing from there, and the Guardians secured their date with the Yankees.
The last time Cleveland made it to the ALCS was 2016, when they beat the Blue Jays and then played one of the best Fall Classics in baseball history against the Cubs. The North Siders were the ones to break their championship drought, though, and the Guardians still haven’t won it all since 1948 — otherwise known as 16 Yankees World Series titles ago. So you’ll forgive Ohioans (and let’s be real, most of the country) for playing the world’s smallest violin when Yankees fans complain about the team winning nothing since 2009.
Given that the Korean War happened more recently than a World Series parade in Cleveland, the Guardians would be the sentimental favorite in just about any possible ALCS matchup. Against the Yankees, however? Everyone’s going to be singing the praises of José Ramírez and fondly reminiscing about Jim Thome and Carlos Baerga.
The Yankees and Guardians have battled each other in the playoffs six different times before now (most recently in 2022), and this will also be an ALCS rematch of 1998. David Wells, Bernie Williams, and Orlando “El Duque” Hernández starred in that one as one of baseball’s most legendary teams won in six games. Cleveland has given New York fits in the past though, with highlights like Sandy Alomar Jr.’s clutch homer off Mariano Rivera en route to dethroning the 1996 champions, Francisco Lindor sending Progressive Field into a frenzy with a late slam in 2017, and, yes, those damn midges. This should be a fun ride.
ALCS schedule
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 14, 7:37pm ET, Yankee Stadium
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 15, 7:37pm ET, Yankee Stadium
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 17, TBD, Progressive Field
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 18, TBD, Progressive Field
Game 5*: Saturday, Oct. 19, TBD, Progressive Field
Game 6*: Monday, Oct. 21, TBD, Yankee Stadium
Game 7*: Tuesday, Oct. 22, TBD, Yankee Stadium
*if necessary; all games will be televised on TBS
Why the Yankees will win:
They employ two of the five best players in baseball as well as last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner, and that’s an awfully good place to start before you even think about the surging bullpen.
Aaron Judge just had a season for the ages that was honestly better than his 62-homer 2022 by nearly every other stat. Throw his .322/.458/.701 triple slash with 58 homers and 223 OPS+ into a table of Barry Bonds or Babe Ruth seasons, and those lines would fit right in. The only flag is that Judge’s playoff history is strangely subpar. It goes deeper than his overall numbers, as he started off his career as a solid postseason hitter, but has declined in recent years despite going supernova in the regular season.
105 batters have 200+ career postseason PAs
Maldonado’s .501 OPS ranks 105th
Judge’s .760 OPS ranks 50th, tied with Thome & DiMaggio
K’s are not new but the production has gone down recently:
’17-’19: .910 OPS in 121 PA, 33.9% K-rate
’20-’24: .559 OPS in 86 PA, 33.7% K-rate https://t.co/edKwtGW7rq
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) October 8, 2024
Even updating the latter numbers from 2020-24 to include the two full games after this tweet, the Yankees captain’s post-2019 playoff OPS is .579 and K-rate is 31.6 percent. Judge has to do better than that, and it’s probably not a good idea to bet against a hitter this talented.
Speaking of talented hitters: Juan Soto. Although it seems like there would be a strong match in free agency this offseason, the Yankees paid a hefty price to acquire Soto knowing that there was a real chance of him spending just one year in the Bronx. He was outstanding and would be an obvious MVP candidate if he didn’t share an outfield with Judge. This month, though, was the real reason why GM Brian Cashman traded for Soto. He’s an absurdly smart hitter who also has a championship pedigree despite being younger than almost everyone on the Yankees’ roster. Soto posted a .927 OPS in 17 games as the Nationals won it all in 2019; he only flashed that form a bit in the ALDS, but the Yankees have every reason to believe that he’ll help lead them to the pennant.
What might concern Cleveland is that the Yankees’ two best regulars by OPS from their ALDS win over Kansas City weren’t Judge and Soto, but Gleyber Torres (.867) and Giancarlo Stanton (1.132). Torres revitalized his own walk year campaign with a hot home stretch as the reinstalled leadoff hitter, and unlike Judge, Stanton has been a sensational playoff hitter throughout his Yankees career. An eighth-inning bomb at Kauffman Stadium won Game 3 for New York, and he blistered a 116.9-mph single for a much-needed insurance run in the 3-1 win in the Game 4 clincher.
While the rest of the Yankees’ lineup was more hot-and-cold (rookie Austin Wells was particularly frigid at cleanup), this is a lineup that needs just a few of the many threats going to cause serious issues for opposing pitching.
Right now, the Yankees have both the ace and the bullpen they need to feel comfortable to hold the opposing team at bay, too. No one among the eight Division Series teams hit worse than the Royals, and even acknowledging that they weren’t so hot to begin with, that’s a testament to Yankees pitching. Gerrit Cole—who dominated Cleveland in the 2022 ALDS—rebounded from a shaky Game 1 to hold KC to one run in seven innings in Game 4, and the Royals did absolutely nothing against New York relievers, who had a 0.00 ERA in 15.2 innings across the series. Unofficial closer Luke Weaver looks unhittable, erstwhile closer Clay Holmes rediscovered his form in middle/late relief, and changeup spammer Tommy Kahnle threw three hitless frames.
There are flaws with this Yankees team that the Guardians could definitely expose, as we’ll touch on in a moment. The Astros have demonstrated that it’s eminently possible to subdue them, and the pressure on the Yanks will be higher than ever to win it all without Houston in the way. But the Guardians have their work cut out for them.
Why the Guardians will win:
Each and every ballgame could be essentially over early if Cleveland has the lead by the middle frames, and José Ramírez demands your respect.
All season long, the Cleveland rotation has been the primary culprit for general skepticism. Yes, Tanner Bibee is a perfectly fine No. 1 pitcher, but the rest of the starting staff did not offer much hope. The postseason is just a different animal though, and with baseball where it is in 2024, starting pitching is only so important. (Ask the Phillies how far they got with three All-Stars in their rotation.) The Guardians won their ALDS by taking both of Bibee’s starts and then beating up on the AL’s best pitcher in the win-or-go-home. These things happen!
The rotation is also where the Guardians are closest to the Yankees in that there’s only so much reliability to be found after Cole. Overall, Cole is better than Bibee, but not so much better that it would be shocking to see them duel to a standstill in Game 2, or even a slight Bibee advantage. Likewise, the trio of Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, and Luis Gil is better than the trio of Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb, and Joey Cantillo/Ben Lively/Mystery Cleveland Game 4 starter. In one or two head-to-heads, though, especially with rookie skipper Steven Vogt’s quick hook to the bullpen? The Guardians don’t exactly have to defeat Andy Pettitte or El Duque here.
Vogt has a ton of trust in his relief corps, and it’s well-deserved. Emmanuel Clase’s ALDS Game 2 hiccup was an anomaly for the 0.61 ERA closer. There was a lot of quality relief work to be found at the Tigers’ expense. Cade Smith should prove to be a particular nuisance for Yankees fans. The best rookie you’ve never heard of struck out a dozen Tigers in a mere 6.1 innings of work, appearing all five games. Like Terry Francona with Andrew Miller back in 2016, Vogt is happy to use Smith in just about any scenario, and he will likely be the first man in to put out a fire — or simply cover some middle innings since no starter is expected to stay in terribly long (Vogt even pulled Bibee with a 5-0 lead after 4.2 scoreless in ALDS Game 1).
After Smith, the bridge to Clase can be forged with any mix of good relievers from the batch of Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and Eli Morgan. All Cleveland needs to do is scrap together a lead through six and this bullpen is a near-lock to slam the door:
The Cleveland Guardians are 71-2 when leading after six innings this season
— Cody Stavenhagen (@CodyStavenhagen) October 5, 2024
Simple enough, right? This isn’t asking a second-grader to solve a Rubik’s cube blindfolded (though that is sick). The Royals even held Judge and Soto to a combined 6-for-27 (.222) with no homers. If Cleveland can approach that and then also handle the easier task of taming the remaining New York hitters, then they’ll be sitting pretty.
Anyway, if the Yankees are hopeful about getting more from Judge and Soto, then the Guardians can also feel optimistic about improvements from All-Stars Ramírez and Josh Naylor. They went 7-for-36 (.194) in the ALDS with only a solo shot from Ramírez. He’s been terrific for ages now, and will have his number retired by Cleveland one day. Shohei Ohtani’s 50/50 got all the hubbub, but a rainout on the season’s final day might have been the only thing that kept Ramírez from joining the 40/40 Club, too, as he belted 39 bombs and swiped 41 bases. And while Naylor has his dry spells here and there, you don’t luck into 31 homers.
The Guardians were also happy to see the talents of a man who’d been missing from their lineup for much of September: Steven Kwan.
Back in July, Kwan joined Judge and Soto in the AL starting outfield at the All-Star Game. This was no accident, and Cleveland missed his presence during the stretch run, as he battled an aching back. Detroit was exhausted with Kwan by the end of the ALDS, as the Gold Glover played miraculous defense in left, and despite just five at-bats in total since mid-September entering the postseason, he peppered Tigers pitching with a .524/.565/571 triple slash in the series. This man can cause havoc, and as Thomas and Fry proved against Detroit, the pop doesn’t always have to come from Ramírez and Naylor.
The Yankees are the favorites, sure. Casually write off Cleveland at your own risk.
